Demand and Risk Analysis of Piccadilly Line Extension to Heathrow Terminal 5
Client: London Underground Ltd, Sep 1996 - Sep 2000
As part of the public transport access to the proposed Heathrow Terminal 5, extension of the Piccadilly line has been considered for a number of years. BAA, the promoter of the new terminal, and LUL agreed to fund the extension through a Private Finance Initiative agreement. Although BAA had had their own demand modelling work carried out, London Underground needed an independent view of the passenger demand likely to arise over the extension.
The Railway Consultancy Ltd were therefore commissioned to assist, at first by auditing the demand forecasts produced by BAA and later by undertaking an assessment of risks, in order to ensure that the deal provided the best outcome for the taxpayer. Demand scenarios were therefore developed, and their likelihood of occurrence estimated using a Delphi poll of key managers within London Transport. The infrastructure payments resulting from use of the extension under given demand scenarios were then calculated, and a report prepared giving LUL managers a good understanding of the demand risks they face.
The terminal building and associated rail links are now under construction.
Last updated: Sunday, 18th December 2016
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