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The Railway Consultancy

Demand and Risk Analysis of Piccadilly Line Extension to Heathrow Terminal 5

Client: London Underground Ltd, Sep 1996 - Sep 2000

Heathrow

As part of the public transport access to the proposed Heathrow Terminal 5, extension of the Piccadilly line has been considered for a number of years. BAA, the promoter of the new terminal, and LUL agreed to fund the extension through a Private Finance Initiative agreement. Although BAA had had their own demand modelling work carried out, London Underground needed an independent view of the passenger demand likely to arise over the extension.

The Railway Consultancy Ltd were therefore commissioned to assist, at first by auditing the demand forecasts produced by BAA and later by undertaking an assessment of risks, in order to ensure that the deal provided the best outcome for the taxpayer. Demand scenarios were therefore developed, and their likelihood of occurrence estimated using a Delphi poll of key managers within London Transport. The infrastructure payments resulting from use of the extension under given demand scenarios were then calculated, and a report prepared giving LUL managers a good understanding of the demand risks they face.

The terminal building and associated rail links are now under construction.

Last updated: Sunday, 18th December 2016
https://www.railwayconsultancy.com/projects/piccadilly.php
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  • The Railway Consultancy Ltd
  • Why Choose Us?
  • Experience
  • Projects
  • Feasibility Studies
    1. New Line and Station
    2. New Service
    3. Tourist Railway
    4. Freight
    5. New System
  • Commercial Planning
    1. Demand Forecasting
    2. Demand Modelling
    3. Demand Analysis
    4. Project Appraisals
    5. Fares Policy
    6. Secondary Revenue Streams
    7. Station Planning
    8. Track Access Planning
    9. Database Construction
  • Operational Planning
    1. Operational Simulation
    2. Timetabling and Operability Issues
    3. Train Service Analysis
    4. Performance Audits
    5. Signalling and Track Layout Design
    6. Safety Analysis
    7. Freight Planning
  • Management & Strategy
    1. Business Planning
    2. Investment Strategy
    3. Management Consultancy
    4. Franchise Bidding Support
    5. Benchmarking Studies
    6. Economic Assessment
    7. Access to the Rail Network
  • Audit & Assessment
    1. Audits
    2. Project Validation
    3. Due Diligence
    4. Independent Expert
  • Analysis, Research & Training
    1. Data Analysis
    2. Market Research
    3. Industrial Research
    4. Operational Research
    5. Training
    6. Teaching
    7. Study Tours
  • Publications
  • Press Releases
  • Contact Us