Revenue at Risk Analysis
Client: various train operators, 2017-ongoing
It is all very well developing an optimum fares policy, but revenue actually has to be collected in practice. However, some passengers do not pay the appropriate fare, for a wide variety of reasons, ranging from closed booking offices, ticket machine failures, unclear ticket conditions, honest mistakes, and a lack of time through to deliberate fraud. Understanding when and where these problems are arising is a key first step for any train operator, so that appropriate management action can then be taken. Site visits to look at the situation on the ground can provide insights into why passengers behave as they do.
However, the scale of revenues involved normally means that a more analytical approach is needed. Working with colleagues at Transport Investigations Ltd, who provide the survey staff, the Railway Consultancy has a considerable portfolio of analytical work in providing such information to TOC management. This requires detailed operational knowledge to devise appropriate samples, an excellent understanding of ticket types and conditions when receiving the data, and statistical skills in weighting the results. We have developed our own app, which automatically downloads data overnight from the surveyors directly into Excel, for analysis the following morning.
Last updated: Tuesday, 2nd February 2021
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